Predictions for Thursday 10/19/17

QMZ17 & CLZ17 Predictions 
Binary Price Change Direction: 0, indicating an upward price change, 64% right to date.
Binary Price Change Probability: 48%
Numeric EOD Price Change: -1.10
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: +.90

QMZ17 & CLZ17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 0
Actual Change: -.75

How I'm Trading
I placed a short targeting a $100 profit at the end of the day yesterday. That hit after hours on Wednesday or overnight. Price is dropping today. Currently down -.60. We'll know more as the day progresses. But it looks like the binary price change direction indicator will hit again.

Account Worth
Friday: $2403.84

Predictions for Wednesday 10/18/17

QMZ17 & CLZ17 Predictions 
Binary Price Change Direction: 0, indicating an upward price change, 64% right to date.
Binary Price Change Probability: 48%
Numeric EOD Price Change: -.93
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: +1.07

QMZ17 & CLZ17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 1
Actual Change: +.16

Placed my afterhours/overnight order.

Placed my afterhours/overnight order.

The price jumped up at the end of day on Tuesday. And came down on Wednesday. However, not as much as the predictions. But regardless a successful day.

The price jumped up at the end of day on Tuesday. And came down on Wednesday. However, not as much as the predictions. But regardless a successful day.

Account Worth
Friday: $2310.76

Predictions for Tuesday 10/17/17

QMX17 & CLX17 Predictions 
Binary Price Change Direction: 1, indicating an upward price change
Binary Price Change Probability: 54%
Numeric EOD Price Change: +1.39
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: -.60

QMX17 & CLX17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 1
Actual Change: +.10

Made $90 overnight (monday night). Based on Tuesday's predictions.

Made $90 overnight (monday night). Based on Tuesday's predictions.

How I'm Trading
I'm trying to follow my new strategy. Place more weight on the binary price change indicator and target a $100 a day gain. With a stop order covering my butt at a higher risk. The binary price change direction has been correct 65% of the time. I'm still learning how to use these indicators and I'm hoping this new strategy works well :)

Price tanked around 11am.

Price tanked around 11am.

Price came all the way back up!

Price came all the way back up!

I am trying to mitigate my losses and catch a gain on the predicted swing of the binary indicator even if at end of day the prediction ends up being wrong. It may at least swing that way to start. As in today I got my order in and profited before the price tanked around 11am.

Update 2:30pm, Tuesday
The price climbed all the way back up from the low today. Looks like the binary indicator will hit :)

Account Worth
Friday: $2205.18

Predictions for Thursday 10/12/17

Update 4:09pm 10/12/17: My short order is in.

Update 4:09pm 10/12/17: My short order is in.

QMX17 & CLX17 Predictions 
Binary Price Change Direction: 0, indicating an upward price change
Binary Price Change Probability: 37%
Numeric EOD Price Change: -.73
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: +1.27

QMX17 & CLX17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 0
Actual Change: -.70

How I'm Trading
I have come up with a new trading strategy that I think will work better with the predictions.

New Strategy
At the end of the day, in the evening, between 3-5pm I will place a long or a short with my limit order targeting a $100 profit and take a big risk with my stop order by placing it just above either the 1st or 2nd resistance line.

Screen Shot 2017-10-12 at 12.00.09 PM.png

The binary prediction has a high rate of success. Intraday volatility is my biggest gotcha. Without getting into the details this should decrease my risk and increase my reward as b/s as that sounds. This way at some point in the day if the binary change direction is correct my order should succeed.

I tried this for the first time last night and won.

Predictions for Wednesday 10/11/17

QMX17 & CLX17 Predictions 
Binary Price Change Direction: 1, indicating an upward price change
Binary Price Change Probability: 62%
Numeric EOD Price Change: +.91
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: -1.08

QMX17 & CLX17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 1
Actual Change: +.38

How I'm Trading
I've placed two longs based on the predictions and the news from yesterday. More risk, more return. If you want to take a small account to the big time, I've been told you have to take big risks.

Screen Shot 2017-10-10 at 9.54.17 PM.png
Overnight the price moved within 2 ticks of my limit order :( Hoping that the markets open in the states this morning they repeat the trend from last night.

Overnight the price moved within 2 ticks of my limit order :( Hoping that the markets open in the states this morning they repeat the trend from last night.

Update: The stateside markets did not follow the upward trend to the degree I hoped. So looks like I've got some ground to make up.

Update: The stateside markets did not follow the upward trend to the degree I hoped. So looks like I've got some ground to make up.

Update 1:48pm: Recouped a little :/

Update 1:48pm: Recouped a little :/

At the end of the day it was apparent that I could have made an easy $350 if my bet was a little less risky lol. Two Ticks Less Risky!!!! FML. Tomorrow's another day.

Account Worth
Thursday: $2384.20

Predictions for Tuesday 10/10/17

QMX17 & CLX17 Predictions 
Binary Price Change Direction: 0, indicating a downward price change
Binary Price Change Probability: 27%
Numeric EOD Price Change: -1.37
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: +.36

News
Today I updated the training datasets of the ai with new historical data to improve the predictions. Here are Tuesday's after the re-training of the models:

QMX17 & CLX17 Predictions after re-training the models 
Binary Price Change Direction: 0, indicating a downward price change
Binary Price Change Probability: 36%
Numeric EOD Price Change: -1.41
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: +.59

QMX17 & CLX17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 1
Actual Change: +1.34

Today is a teachable moment. The models predicted a drop based on machine learning analysis of historical time-series data. But fundamentals come into play sometimes. Today the announcement of Saudi Arabia's export cutbacks caused prices to go up :/

These are indicators not a crystal ball. So when the fundamentals disagree with the predictions be careful of using the predictions as your sole input to your trading decision. Give the polar with the polar numeric price change more weight in your trading decision when the binary price change direction seems wrong.

How I Traded
Placed a short when I felt the price was as high as it would get today. Missed that bet because the price continued to climb. So I made a few other bets throughout the day to try and recoup my losses. That worked out ok. Ended up with a $25 dollar loss not including fees at eod.

Account Worth
Tuesday: $2,731.30

Predictions for Monday 10/9/17

QMX17 & CLX17 Predictions 
Binary Price Change Direction: 0, indicating a downward price change
Binary Price Change Probability: 42%
Numeric EOD Price Change: -.58
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: +1.15

QMX17 & CLX17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 1
Actual Change: +.29

No trading for me today.

Hey readers. I've been so busy. I apologize for not getting Monday and Tuesday's predictions out there in advance.

It looks like the ai predictions missed the end of day targets on Monday. I'm not sure how well the predictions would have played intraday because I was AFK (away from keyboard). 

Account Worth
Monday: $2,777.06

Predictions for Friday 10/6/17

QMX17 & CLX17 Predictions 
Binary Price Change Direction: 0, indicating a downward price change
Binary Price Change Probability: 33%
Numeric EOD Price Change: -1.17
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: +.57

QMX17 & CLX17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 0
Actual Change: -1.50

Great day for the predictions. Currently the change is -1.32 looks like all the action happened very early... but predicted correctly. Unfortunately I did not awake early enough to capitalize :( Made a little on a small short Thursday overnight.

Screen Shot 2017-10-06 at 9.40.58 AM.png

Account Worth
Friday: $2,777.06

Predictions for Thursday 10/5/17

QMX17 & CLX17 Predictions 
Binary Price Change Direction: 0, indicating a downward price change
Binary Price Change Probability: 35%
Numeric EOD Price Change: -.96
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: +.76

QMX17 & CLX17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 1
Actual Change: +.775

Screen Shot 2017-10-05 at 11.13.41 AM.png

So we've had a good run on the upside and the downside over the past week or so. Was bound to have a less than average day. But maybe I can turn it around still... Right now I'm down $87.50. Acceptable considering the gains of the past 2-3 days.

 

As you can see the price is moving opposite the binary price change direction. Which means we should be using the polar numeric price change indicator. 

The price has breached the second resistance line as well. So I'm betting its coming down still. We'll see if I can recoup some of these losses + fees :/

Update
Alright, alright, alright. I recouped my losses on a short when it came back down from the high :) 

It looks like the price will probably end up hanging right around the polar binary price change prediction. In the lower right image you can see the price came down to .775. Very close to the prediction of .76. Its been fluctuating near that point this afternoon.

Screen Shot 2017-10-05 at 12.56.57 PM.png
Screen Shot 2017-10-05 at 12.56.46 PM.png
Screen Shot 2017-10-05 at 12.57.38 PM.png

Probably wont have much volatility the rest of the day in my opinion. Small swings in between the resistance lines are expected.

Small swings all afternoon.

Small swings all afternoon.

Account Worth
Thursday: $2,721.48

Predictions for Wednesday 10/4/17

-.47 at 12:34 pm central. Probably won't go to -1.04 but who knows... still making money :)

-.47 at 12:34 pm central. Probably won't go to -1.04 but who knows... still making money :)

QMX17 & CLX17 Predictions 
Binary Price Change Direction: 0, indicating a downward price change
Binary Price Change Probability: 41%
Numeric EOD Price Change: -1.04
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: +.69

QMX17 & CLX17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 0
Actual Change: -.44

Today was a good day :)

How I'm Trading (Tuesday Overnight)
Predicting another drop tomorrow. May behave similar to today. Dropping overnight and early tomorrow morning. I'm going to put my short in this evening.

The short is in!

The short is in!

5:27pm in after hours and I've already hit my short! +$100

5:27pm in after hours and I've already hit my short! +$100

So I missed another opportunity to short as the price continues to drop. I am going to stick with the predictions and go deep.

Screen Shot 2017-10-03 at 7.37.57 PM.png

Signing off for the night. Good luck. Be safe.

How I'm Trading (Wednesday Morning)
The price has slowly been climbing overnight. I expect at some point it will drop. There have been plenty of opportunities all morning. I've managed to place several successful shorts.

Screen Shot 2017-10-04 at 11.24.15 AM.png

Account Worth
Wendesday: $2,713

Not sure where I was before today, but on monday I was somewhere around $2,400. Started with a little over $2000.

Predictions for Tuesday 10/3/17

QMX17 & CLX17 Predictions 
Binary Price Change Direction: 0, indicating a downward price change
Binary Price Change Probability: 34%
Numeric EOD Price Change: -0.56
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: +1.17

QMX17 & CLX17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 0
Actual Change: -.16

Update
Its still early 8:42am central time. Behavior was spot on this am was exactly as predicted :) $125 win if you shorted 1 contract of QM. More if you traded CL :) Came back up to -.16 by eod but I'm still amazed by the success of my trades supported by the machine learning models.

Prediction published here and last night on Tradingview.com

Prediction published here and last night on Tradingview.com

Behaved as predicted and profit :)

Behaved as predicted and profit :)

Predictions for Friday 9/29/17

Happy Thursday! Here are the predictions for Friday!

QMX17 & CLX17 Predictions 
Binary Price Change Direction: 1, indicating an upward price change
Binary Price Change Probability: 82%
Numeric EOD Price Change: +.58
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: -1.15

QMX17 & CLX17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 1
Actual Change: +.11

Insight
I think the price may move opposite the prediction early tomorrow. If we look at the chart below on the left you can see we had a strong spike this week, and my gut tells me it wants to come down to where it was on Monday but it may only go as low as 51.3 around its low yesterday. My gut also tells me it will move upwards across the purple avg line at some point due to the ai prediction. I'm going to place an overnight short for now. See chart on the right. Keep in mind I could be completely wrong :) Goodnight.

Screen Shot 2017-09-29 at 1.05.47 AM.png
Screen Shot 2017-09-29 at 1.21.09 AM.png

Update
It started coming back up towards the purple line overnight instead of going lower. So I missed on that short. Place a long this morning that made some of it back. The price has been hanging just below the purple line. So I'm hoping it crosses over because I have placed another long.

Screen Shot 2017-09-29 at 2.26.27 PM.png
Screen Shot 2017-09-29 at 2.35.57 PM.png

Update
In after hours I made most of my losses back not counting fees. It continues to slowly creep up.

Screen Shot 2017-09-29 at 4.36.09 PM.png

News
The whitepaper has been updated. ML Model evaluations have been updated due to some criticism. But we like criticism. We increased the strictness of the evaluations and back tests. The model evaluation results are gooooooood. So we're more confident than ever that the DutchessAI collection of indicators is valuable :) Which is important because we trade with these daily. See the whitepaper for details.

9/28/17

QMX17 Predictions
Binary Price Change Direction: 1, indicating an upwards prediction
Binary Price Change Probability: 70%
Numeric EOD Price Change: +.72
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: -1.02

QMX17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 0
Actual Change: -.58

Early in the day the price moved 52.050 to 52.850 an price increase of .80. This was the move. This is why you should get up in the morning. An easy $400 win straight off the prediction if you bought just one share. The price at the end day did not reflect the predictions. But that's ok sometimes. The predicted change was +.72, we saw an +.80 cent move before it corrected.

Screen Shot 2017-09-28 at 6.23.04 PM.png

We can make a safe bet it wall cross the average price it traded at today, at some point tomorrow. Unless it tanks. I wonder what the price will be tomorrow? Isn't it Free Friday? 

9/27/17

QMX17 Predictions
Binary Price Difference: 0
Binary Price Difference Probability: 39%
Numeric EOD Price Change: -.89
Numeric EOD Price Change w/ probability: -1.01
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: +.62

QMX17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 1
Actual Change: +.26

How I Traded
Made $175 real fast today playing a short inline with the prediction that the price will come down. Then lost $125 trying to play another short right away. This is a good lesson. Don't get greedy. If you have a good win don't trade off the emotion from your good favor. It backfires a lot.


Update
At the end of the day the price did not match the predictions. But I was still able to use the indicators to make some successful trades. Ended up with a daily profit of $112.50

Screen Shot 2017-09-27 at 3.19.47 PM.png

9/26/17

QMX17 Predictions
Binary Price Difference: 1
Binary Price Difference Probability: 0.73
Numeric EOD Price Change: +.48
Numeric EOD Price Change w/ probability: +.57
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: -1.02

QMX17 Results
Actual Binary Change: 0
Actual Change: -.34

Insights
In the end today did not match up as well as one would hope. Stay tuned for tomorrow and for updates.

How I Traded
At 11:30pm during overnight trading QMX17 is already up .12. If you got in early you could have already made money. Looks like there is a lot of volume trying to get in below the current price and we are approaching a resistance line. So I think it may come down a little. Its still hard to tell right now weather it will go up or down for the overall day. The indicators say it will go up and the price of oil is at a two year high. I placed a small short that it will go down from 52.325 to 52.225. Then I'll see how I'm feeling about the next move. Hopefully it goes back up :)

Screen Shot 2017-09-25 at 10.10.18 PM.png

Update
So... I cashed out my short at $50 profit. Because I'm going to bed and right now and I would need to watch this thing to make intelligent enough decisions. I'll do another update in the am.

Update
Good morning! This morning its hard to say which direction the next big move will be. Orders look like people are trying to sell for higher than the current price. I placed a small long at 51.875 and cashed out at 51.925. Made another quick $50.

Keep your eye on the ball today. I'll post results of the model's predictions at the end of day.

Keep your eye on the ball today. I'll post results of the model's predictions at the end of day.

9/25/17

QMX17 Predictions:
Binary Price Change: 1
Binary Price Change Probability: 0.57
Numeric EOD Price Change: +.28
Numeric EOD Price Change w/ probability: +.36
Polar Numeric EOD Price Change Indicator: -1.23

QMX17 Results:
Actual Binary Change: 1
Actual Change: +1.560

Insights:
Yet again the predictions of the model were correct about the direction of movement for the day. Actual prices went much higher than predicted very early in the day.